POV

As U.S. consumers brace for tariff-driven price hikes, marketers are coming to terms with the reality that this shopping season won’t be business as usual.

TAccording to our July 2025 U.S. Tariffs Consumer Impact Report, 62% of Americans now feel “cautious or worse” about the economy. That mood shift is a signal telling brands to rethink how they engage a wary, savvy, and increasingly selective shopper, as Black Friday/Cyber Monday (BFCM) and festive season loom up ahead.

Fewer Spenders, Higher Stakes

We’re already seeing evidence of how tariffs are impacting consumer spending. During this past July’s Amazon Prime Day, only 28% said they spent more than in previous years. In contrast, 39% spent less. Notably, 34% said Prime Day wasn’t even applicable to them, a disengagement especially pronounced among Boomers, 60% of whom opted out entirely.

Looking at spending more broadly, over a quarter (26%) of consumers report shopping less overall, with 31% reporting they’ve cut back on non-essentials.

This behavioral pullback isn’t just about inflation. It’s about inflation layered on top of tariff uncertainty, geopolitical volatility, and eroding trust in traditional value narratives. “Higher prices” were cited as the number one shopping worry by 64% of respondents, especially among women (70%) and Gen X (68%).

Delayed, But Not Disengaged

While many consumers are holding off on big-ticket purchases, they haven’t checked out entirely. Wunderkind’s data shows that only 11% plan to begin holiday shopping before September. The majority (62%) will wait until September or even Black Friday/Cyber Monday.

But within that delay lies an opportunity. Value-focused consumers are increasingly using browser extensions, visiting more websites, and subscribing to brand emails and texts, all in search of the best deal. This is a critical signal. Shoppers are open to brand engagement, but only if the message hits the right note.

The New Pillars of Peak-Season Messaging

Marketers must move beyond the traditional playbook of discount blitzes and programmatic noise, and instead focus on three core imperatives:
1.  Build Trust Through Transparency and Value: As prices rise, so do expectations. Consumers want brands not just to justify the price, but to validate the relationship. Messaging should highlight price integrity, product quality, and added value such as free shipping, loyalty perks, or early access.
2.  Shift to Owned Channels to Bypass Market Saturation: In a paid media landscape crowded by political ad spend and rising CPMs, owned channels like email and SMS are essential. They’re personal, permissioned, and performative, especially when powered by identity resolution tech that transforms anonymous browsers into known shoppers.
3.  Optimize for Late-Season Conversion: With the majority of consumers waiting until BFCM to buy, brands must design campaigns that peak in November, but begin building relationships now. That means collecting first-party data, segmenting based on behavior, and deploying AI-personalized messages that match shoppers’ real-time signals.
 
Your Consumer Isn’t Checked Out—They’re Just More Careful

The coming retail season will test every marketer’s ability to connect with a more selective, budget-conscious consumer. But it’s also a chance to double down on what works: transparent messaging, channel ownership, and identity-powered personalization.

If marketers want to win this BFCM, they can’t ignore the caution in the air. But by showing up early, proving value, and staying relentlessly relevant, they won’t just survive a tariff-inflated economy… they’ll outperform in it.